The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) announced at its recent meeting that it plans to start scaling back some of its production cuts later this year. Macquarie analysts indicated that this scenario could exert long-term pressure on oil prices.

OPEC+ stated it will maintain production cuts of 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of the year and continue with 2.2 million bpd cuts until the end of September. The cartel has plans to gradually reduce the 2.2 million bpd cuts from October 2024 to September 2025.

While OPEC+’s decision to uphold production cuts in the near term suggests tighter oil markets during the summer, its eventual plan to increase production signals a potential weakening of the cartel’s support for oil prices, according to Macquarie analysts.

“Overall, it might be best to take OPEC+/Saudi Arabia seriously but not literally regarding the timing and implementation of this return of supply. Amidst this signaling and the recent increase in OPEC supply to the market, we see an intention not to perpetually sacrifice volumes to support the oil market,” Macquarie analysts commented.

Oil prices dropped to four-month lows following the OPEC+ decision, as traders anticipated less tight markets in late 2024 and into 2025.

Weak economic indicators, along with recent signs of increased oil output in non-OPEC countries, particularly the U.S., have further fueled concerns about oversupplied markets heading into 2025.

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